Forward
Weekly Commentary
An Alternative View of the World | December 11, 2021
The consensus view on Wall Street is that the Fed is dovish and economic growth is robust and both will remain so. That view is supportive of additional stock market gains in 2022…MORE
Valuations Only Matter on the Way Down | December 4, 2021
No one cares about valuation when stocks are rising, but when the market turns, valuation is all that matters. Given the hawkish turn the Fed appears to be taking, it makes sense to talk a bit about valuations…MORE
Wherever You Go, There You Are | November 27, 2021
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we find the current market valuation to be very high. But rather than just say that, we thought it might be helpful to give some perspective around that comment…MORE
Build, Back, Better – On the Brink | November 20, 2021
As if we needed more evidence that Congressional mathematics is generally faulty, the CBO analysis of the Build Back Batter plan has a $376 billion gap between costs and revenue…MORE
Only One Vote Counts in this Election | November 13, 2021
Over the next few months President Biden may have the opportunity to nominate a majority of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors with the potential to fundamentally alter monetary policy and bank regulation…MORE
The Taper is Finally Here and Markets Did Not Panic. | November 6, 2021
Tapering simply means that the Fed will reduce, and eventually eliminate, the extraordinary accommodation supplied to financial markets since the beginning of the pandemic. That accommodation was in the form of open market purchases of both Treasury bonds and mortgage backed bonds…MORE
Story of the Week: Markets Hit All-Time Highs During the Week, Again! | October 30, 2021
This is why market timing is so difficult. When the market was declining in September, many Wall Street strategists like Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley, were calling for a 10-20% correction. Many thought we had seen the peak…MORE
Crazy Headlines of the Week | October 23, 2021
This week seemed to bring headline after headline that simply caused us to mutter “this is crazy”. ‘Shortage’ appears to be the key word in those stories, whether it is shortage of goods or commodities or the shortage of common sense in Congress…MORE
Houston, Do We Have a Problem? | October 16, 2021
On Apollo 13, the problem was quickly recognized. In today’s economy, there are still plenty of questions. We hate to be part of the gloom crew, but when you step back and look at the world through a wide-angle lens, it’s is increasingly hard to be optimistic. The world is experiencing the first major energy crisis in a very long time, and it appears to be of our own making…MORE
Valuation, Not Stories, Ultimately Determines Investment Returns | October 9, 2021
Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA) wrote an excellent article in the Financial Times this week with the title above. We can’t reproduce that article, but we found a more detailed RBA report that we’ll summarize here…MORE
Can Inflation Pop an Over-Inflated Stock Market? | October 2, 2021
Inflation is the unseen drain on wealth that affects everyone, but impacts the poor much more so than the wealthy. We were listening to an interview this week with Ron Baron, an iconic growth stock investor…MORE
When Will The Ever Learn? | September 25, 2021
The title is a line from Pete Seeger’s old folk song “Where have all The Flowers Gone?”, which has been recorded by many artists over the years. Whether we speak of war and peace, as the song does, or economies, it is a cyclical world…MORE
Economic Growth Weakens While Inflation Rises | September 18, 2021
Due to the spread of the Delta Variant late summer, we expect that momentum from the early part of the recovery will continue to erode. Delta cases may be peaking, but schools being back in session and cooler temperatures can complicate projections…MORE
Waiting for Godot | September 11, 2021
If you’ve been waiting for a correction, it’s been like waiting for Godot. The statistic of the week was that we have not had a 5% correction since last October. If that holds up for the rest of the year, it will only be the third time that has happened since 1980…MORE
When is it Too Much? | September 4, 2021
First the pandemic bred fear, and then it bred money. Clearly there was a great financial need among many millions of Americans as the pandemic closed down the economy in the Spring of 2020. Congress came out swinging with several bills…MORE
Tapering is Not a Fashion Statement | August 28, 2021
There’s been a lot of talk about tapering lately and we’re not talking about the slim fit that is the style for men these days, we’re talking about the Fed’s balance sheet. Here’s what you need to know…MORE
Take A Test Drive… | August 21, 2021
As much as we hate dealing with car salespeople, we love the test drive. We imagine ourselves driving down the street waving to friends in our favorite, brand new car. No doubt, that’s fun, but in the end, it’s just a car…MORE
Don’t Count Your Chickens… | August 14, 2021
There was a lot of talk about infrastructure this week and much of it was rather confusing. First the Senate passed the $1 trillion bi-partisan infrastructure bill, which addresses traditional infrastructure spending, like roads, bridges, broadband, community redevelopment, etc…MORE
Searching for Goldilocks | August 7, 2021
There is a massive tug of war between the growth we have been experiencing and the prospect of growing downward pressure on that growth due to tougher comparisons from last year, not to mention the spread of the Delta variant…MORE
The Bond Market Looks Confused | July 31, 2021
Bonds have generally reacted as expected, but not nearly to the degree that might have been predicted. Nominal yields (actual interest rates bonds are paying) initially rose with inflation fears but recently have headed back down. However, real yields (nominal yields minus inflation) have remained stubbornly low, in fact, negative…MORE
Recent Volatility | July 24, 2021
As it often does, the stock market hit a rough patch in the beginning of the week due to concerns around the delta variant, economic growth, interest rates and more..MORE
Cross Currents | July 17, 2021
It seems that investors are being pulled in opposite directions with greater regularity these days. Confusing cross currents are not unusual, but the sheer number of them hitting at the same time makes today a more confusing time than usual…MORE
Why are government bond yields declining? | July 10, 2021
What we found to be most interesting, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke on June 16th, is government bond interest rates have been on a decline. The yield closed at 1.56% on June 16th, and on Thursday it declined to 1.28%…MORE
Asset Class Return Projections | July 3, 2021
The higher asset prices rise, the lower the expected return on an asset is. That sounds counter intuitive, but if assets rise to their true value, then the higher the price goes, the less upside there is left, i.e., expected returns are lower…MORE
Peak Growth and What Comes Next | June 26, 2021
Economic growth has been extraordinary, albeit from a very low, pandemic-induced base, and concerns of inflation have been front and center. Markets look confused, but this is just the next step in recovery. Although life is getting back to normal, the economy is far from it…MORE
Dot Plots and Ink Blots | June 19, 2021
The markets were effectively paralyzed early this week in anticipation of the Fed releasing its latest forecasts, most important of which is the ‘Dot Plot’, which is the interest rate forecast of the 18 individual members of the FOMC…MORE
Stepping Back | June 12, 2021
It’s very easy to get caught up in the day-to-day, week-to-week action in markets, and that requires a discipline to occasionally take a step back and look at the bigger picture. This is one of those times…MORE
Is Big Oil Dead? | June 5, 2021
The energy sector has been the market leader in 2021 as the economy recovers. Ironically, the Biden green agenda could provide the next leg up for energy investments…MORE
Can China Reverse the Current Inflation Trend? | May 29, 2021
Last week we spoke about how a hoarding mentality can have a meaningful impact on inflation. Recently, the Chinese government took an important step in attempting to stop that hoarding reaction in China, which is, of course, the world’s primary user of raw materials…MORE
Commitment | May 22, 2021
During difficult weeks like this, the ability to plow through the noise and the chaotic trading is tied to your commitment to time tested investment principles. If you are merely involved with no rhyme or reason, markets can be treacherous…MORE
Back to the Future | May 15, 2021
Last week we discussed the evidence for the current inflation to be persistent or transitory. There are good arguments on both sides, which to us implies that some items will be transitory and others not, thus some increase in inflation will be persistent. The unanswered question is how persistent and that is where markets have been laser focused…MORE
The Great Inflation Debate | May 8, 2021
Inflation is the great unseen tax on your savings. It degrading the purchasing power of your dollars. Parts of our portfolios are designed to deal with inflationary trends with the intent of maintaining your purchasing power if and when inflation comes…MORE
Taxes Are Headed Higher – Why You Shouldn’t Worry | May 1, 2021
Even the slimmest of legislative majorities is a strong incentive to propose big plans and this time around is no different. Much like President Trump, President Biden is seeking to implement his campaign promises…MORE
Staying Focused on the Long-Term | April 24, 2021
The past few weeks have seen one blockbuster economic report after another. From the 916,000 jobs that were added in March, to retail sales jumping 9.8% month-over-month, these are some of the best economic numbers we could see in a lifetime…MORE
Markets Are Fickle – BofA Fund Manager Survey | April 17, 2021
Last week we asked if strong economic growth estimates were already priced into the Market. This week we have a similar question based on the most recent (April) Bank of America Fund Manger’s Survey…MORE
Are Soaring Growth Estimates Already Priced In? | April 10, 2021
It may not be the roaring 20’s again, but it sure looks like a roaring 2021. The combination of vaccine progress, massive stimulus, and a very easy comparison to the disastrous COVID economic impact makes GDP forecasts that are well above the pre-pandemic trendline an easy call…MORE
Economy: Full Steam Ahead | April 3, 2021
Investors remain focused on the future and appear less concerned about the past and the evidence is in the Weekly Economic Index from the New York Fed…MORE
Stocks Remain A Prisoner of Interest Rates | March 27, 2021
The economic experience in the U.S. compared with Europe and much of Asia is very different. Although there are some risks of an increasing infection rate in the U.S. after Spring Break, a rapidly growing vaccination effort rate is mitigating that risk and confidence is building…MORE
Can the Infrastructure Lure finally Catch Some Funding? | March 20, 2021
There are few issues that have been discussed as consistently as infrastructure, but with no meaningful result. Most recently, infrastructure was a key pillar of the Trump agenda, but it went nowhere fast. Now the Biden Administration is talking infrastructure too…MORE
Retirement Isn’t a Four-Letter Word | March 13, 2021
Each year J.P. Morgan releases an educational booklet on retirement and because we focus so heavily on retirement for clients, we have made it a practice of taking a few topics from it for our clients…MORE
Does the Financial News Have You Confused? Here is a Simplification. | March 6, 2021
Today’s world of instant and constant information can easily put us in a position where we can’t see the forest for the trees. Stepping back from the constant barrage of seemingly conflicting financial data points and focusing on the ‘forest’ can be an enlightening exercise…MORE
The Long and Short of Interest Rates | February 27, 2021
When the week started, it appeared that short-term rates would be the ‘story of the week’ due to a planned drain of Treasury cash. However, on Thursday, long-term rates took center stage as the 10-year yield jumped from a 1.38% close on Wednesday…MORE
When it Absolutely, Positively Has to Be There… | February 20, 2021
Those old enough will probably recognize our title from the iconic Federal Express tagline ‘When it absolutely, positively has to be there overnight’. When the pandemic hit almost a year ago, one of the key words of the time was delivery.…MORE
Centenarians Dilemma | February 13, 2021
At PWM, we strongly prefer that all of our clients complete a retirement planning exercise so we can properly advise them in all their financial decisions. One of the key questions we need to estimate in developing the plan is how long they expect to live…MORE
Taking Stock of 2020 | February 6, 2021
There is no doubt 2020 was one for the record books and in more ways than one. We were planning this commentary several weeks ago, but the craziness continued into 2021, so we postponed the comments until this week…MORE
Are We in a Bubble, and if so, Is It Ready to Pop? | January 30, 2021
Over the years we have experienced some crazy weeks in financial markets. This week is one right up there with the craziest of them. The big topic with investors and non-investors alike is: ‘Are we are in a financial bubble?’…MORE
Commodities – The Bull Market You Aren’t Hearing About | January 23, 2021
Over the past several months, these pages have been littered with concerns about inflation re-appearing. Much like recessions and pandemics, we never really know precisely when inflation might happen. This inability to predict markets is at the heart of our investment process…MORE
Bond Yields Raise Their Ugly Head | January 16, 2021
Most of the time, market commentary focuses on the stock market, but every so often, the bond market flexes its muscle and takes center stage. This week was one of those times and with good reason…MORE
Georgia Produces a Blue Ripple | January 9, 2021
In the final days leading up to the Georgia Senate races, we were given a hint of what was to come. It appears the Democrats have won both Senate seats which substantially changes the mathematics in Washington…MORE
Prognosticators Delight | January 2, 2021
The magic of the new year is that prognosticators get to wipe the slate clean and begin anew, and as usual there is no shortage of prognostications for 2021. The more common themes call for a weaker dollar, stronger international markets, a spark of inflation, a rebound in small cap stocks, and the like. We have a different perspective…MORE
Redefining Normal in 2021 | December 26, 2020
The pandemic had barely begun when speculation began about how this pandemic would change our world on a more permanent basis. That speculation has been non-stop ever since, but with the first two vaccines approved and now being administered, the bulk of the pandemic is hopefully in the rear-view mirror…MORE
A Holiday Gift for America? | December 19, 2020
The consensus right before the election was that a Blue Wave would create a very large (around $3 trillion) stimulus package, and without the Blue Wave, something a bit less would be more likely. But with the Trump Administration pushing their number up towards $2 trillion pre-election, the expectations were that no matter the election outcome, a substantial stimulus deal would be forthcoming…MORE
Does ESG Investing Have the Right Stuff? | December 12, 2020
We are very encouraged with society’s increased awareness and focus on issues related to environmental and social issues. An outgrowth of this awareness, the idea of incorporating these considerations, known as ESG – Environmental, Social Governance, as part of the investment process has gained in popularity…MORE
Bitcoin is Flying – Should I Care? | December 5, 2020
Bitcoin has taken off again, reaching new highs and grabbing headlines in the financial news. We have taken notice and we’ve been discussing Bitcoin’s place, if any, in a portfolio. Some of our readers have likely traded and/or still own Bitcoin or one of the other digital currencies…MORE
Are Investors Out Over their Skis? | November 28, 2020
Ed Yardeni, a noted economist, posted a chapter from his book “Fed Watching for Fun & Profit” on Twitter. In particular, he posted the chapter on Janet Yellen, the former FED Chair and now Treasury Secretary in waiting….MORE
What the Vaccines Might Mean for Inflation | November 21, 2020
Investors continue to weigh in on the rotation between the ‘COVID trade’ and the ‘Reflation trade’. Breakthroughs this week by major healthcare companies in developing vaccines has pushed optimism for the future…MORE
It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times | November 14, 2020
We have to be honest, when we spoke about optimism last week, we didn’t expect it to arrive on Monday, but it appears to have done just that in the form of the Pfizer vaccine announcement…MORE
Reasons for Optimism | November 7, 2020
The election is over. As of this writing, results are not official, but the odds appear overwhelming that Biden has won the Presidency. The republican hold on the Senate is tenuous and looks like it could depend on two Georgia run-off elections in January…MORE
Elections: Don’t Let Emotions Make Investment Decisions | October 31, 2020
Election season has always motivated prognosticators to forecast the stock markets future based on the election results. The dichotomy of the candidates the last two cycles has made those prognostications that much more extreme…MORE
The Election is Almost Here. What Happens Next? | October 24, 2020
Historically, elections have mattered most to the market when they happen, and the long-term effects are much more muted. This is because the market is quick to adjust expectations based on the new reality that is created by an election…MORE
PWM Education Series: Key Highlights | October 17, 2020
The Economy: While there are pockets of extreme weakness (such as travel and leisure), overall economic activity and earnings are looking pretty good. Economic activity has generally surprised to the upside thus far…MORE
Gift Tax Exemptions Could Become Much Less Available | October 10, 2020
If we learned one thing from the 2016 presidential election, it is that the only poll that matters is the one taken on Election Day. The outcome of presidential elections often has a dramatic impact on our financial planning…MORE
The Argument for Value Over Growth Equities Right Now | October 3, 2020
We came across some research from Bank of America this week (BofA’s Picks for Quality Value stocks, Sept, 29, 2020) that we thought was particularly interesting because it was 100% based on observations of past cycles, not merely opinions…MORE
Ruth Bader Ginsburg, The Election, and the Stock Market | September 26, 2020
As if we needed any more election anxiety, RBG’s death raises the stakes of this already contentious election and that is a headwind for markets in the near term. Here are the key investment issues…MORE
Fed Comments Upset the Stock Market | September 19, 2020
There are times when markets appear to be looking for an excuse to move. This was one of those weeks. The Federal Reserve Meeting ended Wednesday, and as is customary, Fed Chair Powell made comments at the close of the meeting…MORE
Is this Just a Correction in a Bull Market? | September 12, 2020
As you all should know by now, we do not attempt to time markets because no one can reliably predict when markets turn. We only know after the fact. The following are two questions investors are thinking about…MORE
Fed Chair Powell Changes the Rules | August 31, 2020
Sorting through Federal Reserve Policy statements can often be a cure for insomnia, and Mr. Powell’s speech on Thursday was no different. I guess economists just aren’t particularly engaging speakers…MORE
What Does Kamala Harris Mean to the Biden Ticket? | August 17, 2020
She is clearly the safe choice based on the parameters that Biden laid out, as well as the choice with the best chance to complete a winning team in November. The following outlines a few of her economic and financial policies…MORE
Are Gold and Silver Similar? | August 10, 2020
The short answer is yes, they are. We have spoken about the role of gold several times over the last few months. Now, silver is getting on the bandwagon. Although silver has more industrial uses than gold…MORE
The GOP Unveiled Its Version of the Next COVID Relief Bill | August 3, 2020
The Democrats hate it. Is that a problem? You bet it is. These two warring factions, each catering to the extreme forces within their party, will have a hard time agreeing on anything…MORE
Markets Do Not Always Make Sense | July 20, 2020
Good news is great news and bad news is good news, or so it seems when looking at the stock market these days. In the financial news, it is difficult to avoid a story discussing how the market has de-coupled from…MORE
Market’s Ebbs and Flows | July 13, 2020
Keeping perspective during the market’s ebbs and flows is one of the harder skills to master for investors, and markets today are presenting another challenge, so here is our perspective…MORE
Gold in Investment Portfolios | July 6, 2020
Pandemic news has consistently been the top headline producer this year, but at the close of the second quarter, the news turned back to stocks as the stock market had its best second quarter since 1998, with SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, gaining 17.1% in the quarter…MORE
Rapid Changes | June 29, 2020
Lately, it seems that all of these are coming into play in rapid succession. COVID is sickening America, then it gets better, now it’s getting worse again. Some places re-open early, now they are facing closing again…MORE
The Retirement Conundrum | June 22, 2020
This week we want to start by featuring what we view as an extremely important article in The Wall Street Journal. The article discusses the issue of experiencing large losses as you near your retirement and one of the most…MORE
The Fed Roils the Stock Market | June 15, 2020
The Federal Reserve made it very clear on Wednesday that it intends to keep its foot on the monetary gas. Fed Chairman Powell stated, “We are strongly committed to using our tools to do whatever we can and for as long as it takes to provide some relief and stability.”…MORE
Speaking Out | June 8, 2020
What happened to George Floyd was absolutely horrific. The video of that event is as disturbing as any we have seen in a very long time. We stand with the peaceful protestors demanding change and truly hope and pray that this is…MORE
PWM’s Latest Thoughts on Recent Economic News | May 26, 2020
We’ve all seen the headlines, over and over again. “The unemployment rate is the highest since the Great Depression.” “Manufacturing dropped the most since 2008.” “The Leading Economic Index plunged the most on record.”…MORE
No One Knows the Future | May 18, 2020
The current uncertainty in the world is at a fever pitch as it relates to the markets and the intermediate and longer-term opportunities investments. This is obviously as a result of a global pandemic we have not experienced in our lifetime…MORE
Stay Positive | May 12, 2020
Forbes wrote an excellent article that I thought was very apropos for this current crisis we are going through. I have read countless investment, business and self-help books during my lifetime and this article really does an exquisite job in summarizing…MORE
Significant News on the COVID Front This Week | May 4, 2020
There were several pieces of significant news on the COVID front this week. On the treatment front, the Gilead drug Remdesivir had some good results in a Phase III trial. This is a significant step because anti-viral agents have been prone…MORE
How To Keep Your Head about You | April 27, 2020
One of the most difficult things to do is to keep your head about you when others are losing theirs (apologies to Rudyard Kipling). The reason is that you never know if you are just completely out of touch with reality…MORE
COVID-19 Update | April 20, 2020
Last week the news was bad and the market was up. This week the news got better and the market was up again! There are two things that really stand out to us. The first is the global progression of the disease, which is depicted…MORE
How Life Returns to Normal | April 11, 2020
The holidays typically find us with our extended families, but this week that will not be the case. It is indeed a bit of a sacrifice. But no one has sacrificed more than medical professionals, police officers, fire departments, social workers, caregivers, truck drivers, pharmacists…MORE
Sobering Week | April 4, 2020
This past week has been very sobering and emotional to say the least. I expect more of the same in the weeks ahead. Many people didn’t know a single person infected with coronavirus as recently as a few weeks ago….MORE
How Bond Rallies Help Investors Amid Market Pullbacks | February 24, 2020
After weeks of reaching one new record high after another, the U.S. stock market has begun to pull back. Investors are reacting to headlines on the spread of the novel coronavirus around the globe, now officially known as COVID-19, as well as…MORE
Why the Economy Is Stable Despite the Public Health Emergency | February 10, 2020
The stock market continues to react to coronavirus headlines on a daily basis — with both negative and positive market swings. As the death toll rises (primarily in China at the moment), the fact that this is a human tragedy and not just an economic…MORE
Why Investors Shouldn’t Overreact to Recent Headlines | February 3, 2020
We’re only a few weeks into the new year and global headlines have already begun to rattle markets. As of Monday’s open, U.S. markets had pulled back about 2.5% from recent peaks while interest rates had declined by about one-third of a percent…MORE
Why Global Diversification Is Important Despite the Coronavirus | January 27, 2020
Global stocks are in the red this year due to fears of the spreading coronavirus and geopolitical instability. The Chinese stock market, at the epicenter of the public health crisis, and emerging markets more broadly, have taken the brunt of the hit…MORE
Why Investor Discipline Matters When Markets Are Calm | January 17, 2020
The stock market has performed well not only over the past year, but since the beginning of 2017. Over this three-year period, the S&P 500 has risen by over 45%. Investors who were able to stay invested through the volatility of late 2018 and during…MORE
Advanced Planning
Identifying Your Property/Casualty Insurance Gaps
Standard insurance policies cannot adequately address complex needs. Here are 5 key questions that can reveal critical coverage gaps….MORE
Loss Harvesting Season Is All Year Long
Don’t just wait for December to take advantage of great tax mitigation opportunities. For most investors in U.S. stocks and other risk assets, 2019 ended up being a surprisingly strong year, despite dire warnings about the inverted yield curve…MORE
Incorporating Philanthropy into Your Financial Plan
Purposeful philanthropy is the art of thoughtfully, intentionally and purposefully integrating the passion, spirit and commitment of philanthropy into the fabric of our family system…MORE
White Papers
Wealth Management and Retirement Planning Strategies for Successful Dentists
After conducting interviews with more than two dozen successful dentists in the New York City metro area, it’s clear the profession is going through a tidal wave of changes—not all of them pleasant…MORE
How Surgeons Can Prepare for a ‘Work Optional’ Retirement
Declining profits combined with growing feelings of dissatisfaction and powerlessness among surgeons has many considering early retirement. Surgeons often find themselves competing with insurance companies and hospitals for the same dollars and…MORE