Cross-Currents | July 17, 2021

Cross-Currents The post-pandemic world will be different. Cross-currents are everywhere and how this settles is anything but clear, but ultimately everything resolves and typically not at the extremes. The economy is recovering, but persistent government intervention continues to cause market distortions. This has led to excesses in markets and very high asset valuations. As portfolio […]
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Asset Class Return Projections | July 3, 2021

Asset Class Return Projections The higher asset prices rise, the lower the expected return on an asset is. That sounds counter intuitive, but if assets rise to their true value, then the higher the price goes, the less upside there is left, i.e., expected returns are lower. This concept is important as many asset prices […]
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Can the Infrastructure Lure finally Catch Some Funding? | March 20, 2021

Can the Infrastructure Lure finally Catch Some Funding? Infrastructure should be an easy bipartisan issue. How we pay for it is a big sticking point. Getting a bill passed will not be easy. There are few issues that have been discussed as consistently as infrastructure, but with no meaningful result. Most recently, infrastructure was a […]
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The Long and Short of Interest Rates | February 27, 2021

The Long and Short of Interest Rates When the week started, it appeared that short-term rates would be the ‘story of the week’ due to a planned drain of Treasury cash (See “Are Negative Rates Coming Despite Fed Opposition”, below.) However, on Thursday, long-term rates took center stage as the 10-year yield jumped from a […]
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Commodities – The Bull Market You Aren’t Hearing About | January 23, 2021

Commodities – The Bull Market You Aren’t Hearing About Over the past several months, these pages have been littered with concerns about inflation re-appearing. Much like recessions and pandemics, we never really know precisely when inflation might happen. This inability to predict markets is at the heart of our investment process. The world is unpredictable, […]
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