WARNING! Use Extreme Caution! | January 1, 2022

WARNING! Use Extreme Caution! “After two years of ‘up, up, up’ this must be a great time to be an advisor – it just doesn’t get much easier than this!” This theme was more common than expected as we exchanged holiday wishes with friends and clients. The reality is just the opposite. This environment is […]
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An Alternative View of the World | December 11, 2021

An Alternative View of the World The consensus view on Wall Street is that the Fed is dovish and economic growth is robust and both will remain so. That view is supportive of additional stock market gains in 2022. We’ve been around long enough to know that the consensus never sees the market top coming. […]
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Build, Back, Better – On the Brink | November 20, 2021

Build, Back, Better – On the Brink As if we needed more evidence that Congressional mathematics is generally faulty, the CBO analysis of the Build Back Batter plan has a $376 billion gap between costs and revenue. To be fair, the official analysis excludes revenue from increased IRS enforcement. CBO estimated that increased enforcement could […]
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Only One Vote Counts in this Election | November 13, 2021

Only One Vote Counts in this Election Over the next few months President Biden may have the opportunity to nominate a majority of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors with the potential to fundamentally alter monetary policy and bank regulation. Like the Supreme Court, the Fed Board is comprised of seven of the most powerful, […]
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Can Inflation Pop an Over-Inflated Stock Market? | October 2, 2021

Can Inflation Pop an Over-Inflated Stock Market? “By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” – John Maynard Keynes Over the last 20 years, an era known for low inflation, the CPI Index has nonetheless managed to increase about 53%. That is, […]
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Economy: Full Steam Ahead | April 3, 2021

Economy: Full Steam Ahead Unemployment remains high, but continuing claims remain in a downtrend. GDP is not back to pre-pandemic trendline, but early indicators say we are getting close. After the massive GDP decline last year, we should expect well above trendline growth this year as long as the vaccines work their magic. Investors remain […]
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