Is Energy Inflation Tamed? | September 10, 2022

Is Energy Inflation Tamed? Spot WTI crude prices are down about 29% from the Ukraine Invasion peak back in March. Retail gasoline prices have come down about 25% from the peak earlier this year and diesel prices are down almost 13% from the peak. Those are all very meaningful declines, but all three are still […]
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A Compounding Problem | July 23, 2022

A Compounding Problem Globalization is ending as supply chains adjust to the realization of the risks posed by having energy needs (Europe) and essential products manufacturing (U.S.) dependent on a political adversary. This process of reshoring won’t be fast or easy, but the trend is now firmly established. Until that shift becomes reality, globalization continues […]
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Quick Takes | July 16, 2022

Quick Takes A Shot Across the Bow? There is so much focus on narratives these days, we are increasingly compelled to play by the old rule. Watch what they do, don’t listen to what they say. We’ve been watching what JP Morgan has been doing: June 24: JPM announces layoffs in the mortgage unit. It […]
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Economy Killers? | June 11, 2022

Economy Killers? The CPI report for May was released on Friday and it showed that headline inflation rose 8.6% from May of last year, compared with 8.3% in April. Core inflation, that is, excluding food and energy, rose at 6.0% from last year, compared with 6.2% in April. This was a little higher than expectations […]
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Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day | May 7, 2022

Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day While central bankers are very smart, they are far from infallible. Throughout the history of central banks, policy errors are common. The choice central banks are making now is between focusing on core inflation (excluding food and energy). This allows food and energy inflation to run […]
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Sleeping With the Enemy | February 26, 2022

Sleeping With the Enemy The U.S. and Europe are now beginning to pay the price for their inability, or unwillingness, to recognize the growing dependence of Western economies on political adversaries. The economic connections between Russia and the U.S. and EU have complicated the situation and have skewed sanctions to the weakside thus far. Sanctions […]
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