Rising Oil Prices Could Pose the Latest Threat to the Economy

Rising Oil Prices Could Pose the Latest Threat to the Economy Oil prices have surged by over 17% since late June, causing transportation costs for both consumers and businesses to rise and unsettling financial markets. On September 27, West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil price benchmark, surpassed $93 per barrel, reaching its highest point […]
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Is Energy Inflation Tamed? | September 10, 2022

Is Energy Inflation Tamed? Spot WTI crude prices are down about 29% from the Ukraine Invasion peak back in March. Retail gasoline prices have come down about 25% from the peak earlier this year and diesel prices are down almost 13% from the peak. Those are all very meaningful declines, but all three are still […]
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Good News is Good News is Bad News | August 13, 2022

Good News is Good News is Bad News A lower-than-expected CPI report for July (8.5% vs 8.7% expected) had markets rallying in expectation of interest rates quickly coming back. But stronger markets make the Fed’s job more difficult, potentially leading to more rate increases than expected. It is unlikely that would be received well by […]
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Something’s Got to Give | August 6, 2022

Something’s Got to Give There is an extraordinary dichotomy in market outlooks Bull Case: The growth slow-down has been priced in The consumer remains strong Labor market is still tight Inflation will recede Recession will be mild at worst, avoided at best Rates will decline soon, buy risk (stocks, bonds, RE, etc.) Bear Case: Valuations […]
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A Compounding Problem | July 23, 2022

A Compounding Problem Globalization is ending as supply chains adjust to the realization of the risks posed by having energy needs (Europe) and essential products manufacturing (U.S.) dependent on a political adversary. This process of reshoring won’t be fast or easy, but the trend is now firmly established. Until that shift becomes reality, globalization continues […]
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Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way | June 4, 2022

Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way Through history, leadership is enduring. Great leaders are always great leaders. But markets are different; leadership changes with regularity. What leads markets on the way up, typically leads on the way down too, but it doesn’t lead the next leg up. A common mistake investors make is […]
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Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day | May 7, 2022

Even A Broken Clock is Right Twice a Day While central bankers are very smart, they are far from infallible. Throughout the history of central banks, policy errors are common. The choice central banks are making now is between focusing on core inflation (excluding food and energy). This allows food and energy inflation to run […]
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