China as a Catalyst | October 29, 2022

China as a Catalyst This week’s headline could easily be construed as a commentary on the potential for an armed conflict, but in this case, we are on a completely different track. With the economic situation in the States appearing increasingly dire (weakening economy, high inflation, massive debt, & higher interest rates) it is rather […]
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This is Not the Recession You are Looking For | April 30, 2022

This is Not the Recession You are Looking For Q1 preliminary GDP estimate shocks at -1.4%, vs. expectations of about +1.0% We have been saying growth is decelerating, but Q1 is not as bad as it first appears PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) have reverted to pre-pandemic levels The pandemic recovery continues to make data twitchy […]
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Canary in the Coal Mine? | April 9, 2022

Canary in the Coal Mine? Stories about trucker shortages remain common. Truckers move almost about 73% of all freight in the U.S. Anecdotal evidence suggests that demand for trucking services is rapidly waning. Are trucking companies the canary in the U.S. economic coal mine? Like most people that follow financial markets, we follow economic data […]
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Asset Class Return Projections | July 3, 2021

Asset Class Return Projections The higher asset prices rise, the lower the expected return on an asset is. That sounds counter intuitive, but if assets rise to their true value, then the higher the price goes, the less upside there is left, i.e., expected returns are lower. This concept is important as many asset prices […]
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