Frayed, but Resilient

Frayed, but Resilient Over the past 3 weeks the economy and the banking system have become more frayed, yet markets have remained resilient. So, this week, we attempt to make sense out of what doesn’t make any sense. Our recession call remains in place as many economic indicators point toward a recession. Here are a […]
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Who’s Swimming Naked?

Who’s Swimming Naked? Most of the talk this week was of the SVB failure, bank runs, and most important… who’s next? We think that’s the wrong question. Last week we called the SVB failure an old-fashioned bank run, which it was. Much like the movie ”It’s a Wonderful Life”, depositors were lining up at SVB’s […]
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The Apollo 13 Problem

The Apollo 13 Problem In Jim Lovell’s book, Apollo 13, he describes one of the final hurdles the crew faced as they attempted to return their crippled spacecraft to earth. The crew had to approach Earth’s atmosphere at an angle no shallower than 5.3 degrees, and no steeper than 7.7 degrees. If re-entry was shallower […]
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The Red Zone

The Red Zone For those that are not football fans, the red zone is the area inside the 20 yard line, where the team is close to scoring a touchdown. When the red zone is reached, the defense is defending a much smaller area on the field, which presents a greater challenge for the offense. […]
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Is the Yield Curve Signaling a Recession?

Is the Yield Curve Signaling a Recession? Long-term bonds generally provide higher yields than short-term bonds, because investors demand higher returns to compensate for the risk of lending money over a longer period.  Occasionally, however, this relationship flips, and investors are willing to accept lower yields in return for the relative safety of longer-term bonds. […]
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Nothing to See Here… Move Along…

To be honest, we’re getting pretty tired of dealing with market fireworks every time the Fed provides a hint of what they are going to do next. Traders are logically obsessed, but investors need not be dragged into this obsession. This week was a perfect example. The market twitched wildly to the perception of a […]
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The Devil is in the Details

The Devil is in the Details Most of the time, taking note of headline economic data, like the number of new jobs created or the unemployment rate, is all you really need to stay abreast of what’s going on, but at economic inflection points, the data gets more muddled, and is often contradictory, at least […]
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