Coasting Down the Mountain | October 8, 2022

Coasting Down the Mountain While you probably don’t read the financial news every day, if you did, I suspect that by this point you would be surmising that the Fed is a bunch of bumbling idiots. I’m here to tell you that they are not. They are incredibly bright individuals that probably have too much […]
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Is Energy Inflation Tamed? | September 10, 2022

Is Energy Inflation Tamed? Spot WTI crude prices are down about 29% from the Ukraine Invasion peak back in March. Retail gasoline prices have come down about 25% from the peak earlier this year and diesel prices are down almost 13% from the peak. Those are all very meaningful declines, but all three are still […]
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A Compounding Problem | July 23, 2022

A Compounding Problem Globalization is ending as supply chains adjust to the realization of the risks posed by having energy needs (Europe) and essential products manufacturing (U.S.) dependent on a political adversary. This process of reshoring won’t be fast or easy, but the trend is now firmly established. Until that shift becomes reality, globalization continues […]
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Quick Takes | July 16, 2022

Quick Takes A Shot Across the Bow? There is so much focus on narratives these days, we are increasingly compelled to play by the old rule. Watch what they do, don’t listen to what they say. We’ve been watching what JP Morgan has been doing: June 24: JPM announces layoffs in the mortgage unit. It […]
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Economy Killers? | June 11, 2022

Economy Killers? The CPI report for May was released on Friday and it showed that headline inflation rose 8.6% from May of last year, compared with 8.3% in April. Core inflation, that is, excluding food and energy, rose at 6.0% from last year, compared with 6.2% in April. This was a little higher than expectations […]
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Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way | June 4, 2022

Lead, Follow, or Get Out of the Way Through history, leadership is enduring. Great leaders are always great leaders. But markets are different; leadership changes with regularity. What leads markets on the way up, typically leads on the way down too, but it doesn’t lead the next leg up. A common mistake investors make is […]
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