U-Turns

U-Turns For the last 18 months, single data points have regularly surprised the markets in both directions, inciting highly uncertain investors to project forward a “changed” economic outlook. This has led to rapid whipsaws of both bond and stock prices, and this past week was no exception. The CPI report triggered a substantial decline in […]
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Technically Speaking…. It Doesn’t Look Good

Technically Speaking…. It Doesn’t Look Good Over time, markets move based on fundamental factors; revenue growth, returns on capital, cash flow, and earnings. But in the short run, technical factors (i.e., chart reading) play a large role. We all experience the emotional roller coaster of markets to varying degrees. Technical analysis is an attempt to […]
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Tale of the Tape

Tale of the Tape You have to be a very attentive student of the stock market to understand just how unusual this year has been. The year isn’t over yet, so much can change from now to the end of the year, but what has happened thus far is startling. If you read these pages […]
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Can’t Live With Them, Can’t Live Without Them

Can’t Live With Them, Can’t Live Without Them The topic here is hydrocarbons. Oil prices are creating the latest market conundrum. West Texas Intermediate is approaching the $90 level and is up double digits over the last couple of weeks. One might think that is bullish for the economy (better economy = more demand = […]
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No Surprises

No Surprises The Fed meeting in Jackson Hole continues as this is written, but Chair Powell’s comments on Friday morning, the ‘highlight’ of the confab, were no surprise. Chair Powell reiterated that the inflation target is 2%, not 3% as some on Wall St. have speculated, and with rates at or near restrictive territory, any […]
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Making Ends Meet

Making Ends Meet Many market pundits are predicting that inflation will stabilize at a higher rate than the 2% Fed target. The rationale is that as inflation comes down, the Fed does not want to force inflation to 2% and risk a bad recession. As a result, Inflation is more likely to level off around […]
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That’s A Lot of Manure

That’s A Lot of Manure Economic history is full of roadblocks, things that appear impossible to overcome, until some technological advance comes along and changes the dynamics completely. Railroads changed U.S. transportation in the late 1800’s, fertilizers changed our ability to feed a growing global population. Even the automobile, now the bane of environmentalists, was […]
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