What Does a Strong Dollar Mean for the US Economy?

What Does a Strong Dollar Mean for the U.S. Economy? In late September 2022, the U.S. dollar hit  a 20-year high in an index that measures  its value against six major currencies: the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, and the Swiss franc. At the same time, a […]
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Sheltered from the Storm | September 24, 2022

Sheltered from the Storm The bear market rally in July and August had many people hopeful, but that rally has now disappeared and we are essentially back at the June lows on the S&P 500. All this has happened as the Fed has consistently raised interest rates to address inflation, which has sent the bond […]
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Winner by Default | September 3, 2022

Winner by Default The early 20th century marked the move to dollar dominance, the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The U.S. played a key role in WWI, cementing its importance as a growing industrial nation. WWII sealed the deal when the U.S. had the last remaining industrial infrastructure left standing, because the ocean between […]
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This Week in History | August 20, 2022

This Week in History 51 years ago, on August 15, 1971, the gold standard came to a close as the gold-dollar peg was completely removed. From that date forward, we have had a fiat currency, that is, a currency not backed by anything tangible. The result? Since August 1971, the CPI has risen more than […]
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Why Are Government Bond Yields Declining? | July 10, 2021

Why are government bond yields declining? Is the new Delta Variant a threat to the global economic recovery? What should we expect from the upcoming earnings season? What we found to be most interesting, since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke on June 16th, is government bond interest rates have been on a decline (please see […]
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Stocks Remain A Prisoner of Interest Rates | March 27, 2021

Stocks Remain A Prisoner of Interest Rates The stock market is following the bond market like a puppy. Rates down? Buy growth stocks. Rates up? Buy reflation stocks. U.S. growth estimates are rising, but they are falling in other developed markets. Unless something changes, rates are probably going nowhere. The economic experience in the U.S. […]
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Prognosticators Delight | January 2, 2021

Prognosticators Delight The magic of the new year is that prognosticators get to wipe the slate clean and begin anew, and as usual there is no shortage of prognostications for 2021. The more common themes call for a weaker dollar, stronger international markets, a spark of inflation, a rebound in small cap stocks, and the […]
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