Who’s Swimming Naked?

Who’s Swimming Naked? Most of the talk this week was of the SVB failure, bank runs, and most important… who’s next? We think that’s the wrong question. Last week we called the SVB failure an old-fashioned bank run, which it was. Much like the movie ”It’s a Wonderful Life”, depositors were lining up at SVB’s […]
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False Ceiling

False Ceiling There has already been plenty of banter in the news about the debt ceiling and with the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures running out sometime this summer; this is an issue that isn’t going away any time soon. Most of the concern is that Congress will be unable to reach a deal to increase […]
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The Apollo 13 Problem

The Apollo 13 Problem In Jim Lovell’s book, Apollo 13, he describes one of the final hurdles the crew faced as they attempted to return their crippled spacecraft to earth. The crew had to approach Earth’s atmosphere at an angle no shallower than 5.3 degrees, and no steeper than 7.7 degrees. If re-entry was shallower […]
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Stop. Take a Deep Breath.

Stop. Take a Deep Breath. The last few weeks have been amazing to watch, even for old investment pros. The narrative which over the course of 2022 had gone in our direction (recession), first flipped to a soft-landing scenario (slow growth, but no recession), then flipped to a ‘no-landing’ scenario (i.e., economic growth continues). Finally, […]
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The Red Zone

The Red Zone For those that are not football fans, the red zone is the area inside the 20 yard line, where the team is close to scoring a touchdown. When the red zone is reached, the defense is defending a much smaller area on the field, which presents a greater challenge for the offense. […]
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Open Door Policy

Open Door Policy China’s Zero-Covid policy could not last forever, but the suddenness of the reversal was unexpected. China’s doors are opened once again. The initial reaction is one of optimism for global economic growth, but hurdles remain. If we have learned anything about Covid, it is that once released, it spreads quickly. The Lunar […]
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Nothing to See Here… Move Along…

To be honest, we’re getting pretty tired of dealing with market fireworks every time the Fed provides a hint of what they are going to do next. Traders are logically obsessed, but investors need not be dragged into this obsession. This week was a perfect example. The market twitched wildly to the perception of a […]
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