The Devil is in the Details

The Devil is in the Details Most of the time, taking note of headline economic data, like the number of new jobs created or the unemployment rate, is all you really need to stay abreast of what’s going on, but at economic inflection points, the data gets more muddled, and is often contradictory, at least […]
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Bit by Bit

Bit by Bit Our past comments about Bitcoin have centered on the theme that crypto is not ready for prime time. While we may have looked a little naïve as bitcoin shot up to almost $70,000, we look a bit more prescient now. FTX, a leading crypto exchange, has filed for bankruptcy, and the collateral […]
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A Cross to Bear | October 15, 2022

A Cross to Bear Investors have navigated a difficult market all year and the third quarter was no exception. All major indices ended the quarter in bear market territory with the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq declining 5.3%, 6.7%, and 4.1%, respectively, from July to September. With the dollar strengthening and the global economy slowing, […]
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Move Along, Nothing to See Here | September 17, 2022

Move Along, Nothing to See Here Investors have been hanging on every word from the Federal Reserve for years as their policies have been the most consistent driver of markets, be it stocks, bonds, housing, private equity, etc. Some level of rate increases has been baked in by markets, but, of course, that level gyrates […]
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Something’s Got to Give | August 6, 2022

Something’s Got to Give There is an extraordinary dichotomy in market outlooks Bull Case: The growth slow-down has been priced in The consumer remains strong Labor market is still tight Inflation will recede Recession will be mild at worst, avoided at best Rates will decline soon, buy risk (stocks, bonds, RE, etc.) Bear Case: Valuations […]
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A Compounding Problem | July 23, 2022

A Compounding Problem Globalization is ending as supply chains adjust to the realization of the risks posed by having energy needs (Europe) and essential products manufacturing (U.S.) dependent on a political adversary. This process of reshoring won’t be fast or easy, but the trend is now firmly established. Until that shift becomes reality, globalization continues […]
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How Long? How Bad? | June 18, 2022

How Long? How Bad? As we have stated numerous times, we are faced with a menu of bad options. After 20+ years of ever-increasing, Fed-induced, financial largesse, inflation has turned the tables and we face the inevitable reversal of that largesse. There are no good options. The Fed will remain optimistic to the end, but […]
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