Shot Across the Bow

Shot Across the Bow In his 2021 annual letter to investors, Buffett stated “In its brief 232 years of existence … there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential like America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country’s economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.” Of course, he will be […]
READ POST

Promised Land

Promised Land It was quiet, too quiet. The lead up to this week’s Fed interest rate announcement was downright boring. After months and months of agita every time the Fed got together to talk about interest rates, this time there was little doubt about what would happen or what the Fed would say. The assumption […]
READ POST

Keep Calm and Carry On

Keep Calm and Carry On “God is Great, Beer is Good, and People are Crazy.” Country music fans will surely recognize the lyrics from Billy Currington’s famous song. These words come to mind because the first half of this year was absolutely crazy and had us thinking about drinking on more than a few occasions. […]
READ POST

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics A recession will either be one of the most anticipated to ever occur, or one of the most anticipated to not occur at all. At its core, the recession debate is all about jobs. If the job market stays strong, it’s not only very hard to have a recession, it’s […]
READ POST

One More For The Road

One More for the Road As we enter July, with Jay Powell singing a hawkish tune, we expect the market to be very focused on one question: Are interest rates going higher? The answer lies in the inflation data yet to be reported. If inflation fails to get better, then interest rates are likely heading […]
READ POST

Liquidity

Liquidity Liquidity is one of the most confusing words in finance. The fact that it has multiple meanings, depending on the topic at hand, certainly doesn’t help matters. While we prefer to avoid that word, this is one of those times when it is unavoidable. In this case, liquidity is the amount of money sloshing […]
READ POST

It’s the Punch You Don’t See Coming that Knocks You Out

It’s the Punch You Don’t See Coming That Knocks You Out The banking crisis has been in the news for better than a month now, but we suspect that the real crisis is ahead of us, not behind us. The ‘disappearing deposits’ problem, that brought down SVB, Signature, and most recently First Republic, could be […]
READ POST