Deal, or No Deal?

Deal, or No Deal? The banking deposit crisis is receding, but the credit crunch is just starting. After 15 years of investment decisions dominated by the Fed Put (i.e., extremely low interest rates and pumping money into the economy, to rescue markets), the critical question investors currently have is whether the Fed will resume a […]
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Frayed, but Resilient

Frayed, but Resilient Over the past 3 weeks the economy and the banking system have become more frayed, yet markets have remained resilient. So, this week, we attempt to make sense out of what doesn’t make any sense. Our recession call remains in place as many economic indicators point toward a recession. Here are a […]
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Who’s Swimming Naked?

Who’s Swimming Naked? Most of the talk this week was of the SVB failure, bank runs, and most important… who’s next? We think that’s the wrong question. Last week we called the SVB failure an old-fashioned bank run, which it was. Much like the movie ”It’s a Wonderful Life”, depositors were lining up at SVB’s […]
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The Apollo 13 Problem

The Apollo 13 Problem In Jim Lovell’s book, Apollo 13, he describes one of the final hurdles the crew faced as they attempted to return their crippled spacecraft to earth. The crew had to approach Earth’s atmosphere at an angle no shallower than 5.3 degrees, and no steeper than 7.7 degrees. If re-entry was shallower […]
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Why Your Kids Can’t Afford a House

Why Your Kids Can’t Afford a House Home affordability is a function of two primary things: 1) the ability to save enough for a down payment; and 2) having the income required to service the mortgage each month. With housing costs making up the largest part of family expenses, it would naturally be expected that […]
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Stop. Take a Deep Breath.

Stop. Take a Deep Breath. The last few weeks have been amazing to watch, even for old investment pros. The narrative which over the course of 2022 had gone in our direction (recession), first flipped to a soft-landing scenario (slow growth, but no recession), then flipped to a ‘no-landing’ scenario (i.e., economic growth continues). Finally, […]
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The Red Zone

The Red Zone For those that are not football fans, the red zone is the area inside the 20 yard line, where the team is close to scoring a touchdown. When the red zone is reached, the defense is defending a much smaller area on the field, which presents a greater challenge for the offense. […]
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